The SuperCoach Butterfly Effect
What if a coin flip was weighted ever so slightly to one side? What if a single decision put your season on a knife's edge before it had even really begun?
It's impossible to know at the time, and without a crystal ball, how could you? But in reality, it's these 50/50 calls that end up defining your season and shaping how it looks further down the road.
Sometimes I feel like this when I do this podcast:
I can share all the advice and wisdom I've picked up throughout my SuperCoach journey, and still make the wrong decision for my own team.
Connor Rozee was injured in what ultimately turned out to be a season-ending setback. Fortunately, it happened before prices had shifted significantly, meaning we had an entire grocery store of replacement options to choose from.
For my team, I landed on Josh Daicos, who had opened the season with scores of 134 and 94. It was a strong start, and he was priced similarly to Rozee. The other player I seriously considered was Lachie Ash. He suited my bye structure, was available at a comparable price, and had also started the season well with scores of 69, 136 and 130.
Because I'd already started with the Giants' dasher, Lachie Whitfield, I decided to add a bit of variety and back Josh Daicos instead. At the time, their output was fairly similar, and they were playing comparable roles.
Fast forward 18 rounds, and with the benefit of hindsight, Ash would've been the far better selection. He's recorded just two scores below 92, while Daicos has produced nine. Frustrating, to say the least.
There was no way to know at the time. But after spending an entire pre-season meticulously researching and refining a starting squad, it's frustrating to undo some of that work by trading in a player you never truly considered during the planning process instead of one who featured in multiple versions of your starting team, even if they didn't make the final cut. Looking back, it's one of those forks in the road that leaves you wondering what might have been.
In 2027, I vow to trust both my pre-season process and the lessons I've learned from this season, and the ones before it. In some ways, it's reassuring that the advice I give is grounded in genuine experience. My own team has become the proverbial guinea pig, teaching me exactly what to tell others not to do. But just once, I'd like to follow my own advice and see where that takes me.
